When I heard all the fuss last week about the Airport
Commissions report into another runway my initial reaction was one of apathy.
As a northerner, not an MP for Uxbridge or someone particularly concerned about
unreasonable noise levels in my vicinity, I thought, humph well this is a very
London centric story, not really worth all this air time.
My next thought, after digesting the televisions witterings
further was, that if only the Airport Commission’s Report had considered the
north of England for additional aviation capacity, all ‘Call me Dave’s’
problems would be solved. My final thought was, Westminster is too parochial to
consider anywhere else even if it benefits politically.
The Airport Commission’s report found that, a third runway
at Heathrow was the most viable option to increase aviation capacity. A new
runway at Gatwick, a third runway at Heathrow and an expansion to the existing
framework of Heathrow were the central considerations of the report. With
members of the Tory Party that sit in rural constituencies surrounding
Heathrow, lining up to take swings at ‘Call me Dave,’ one would have thought
that considering the northern airports for the expansion, just considering, was
just good politics however fruitless an ordeal it may have been for Sir Davies.
If the report had considered somewhere like Manchester, ‘Call
me Dave’ may have less of a headache in trying to subdue fairly outspoken hard
hitters like Boris and Phillip Hammond on the subject.
The report makes clear that Sir Davies findings are
propelled by economics. An expansion to Heathrow would cost £17 billion of taxpayer’s
money and it is reasonable that the site that would yield the largest hike in
GDP would be chosen. A Third runway at Gatwick and a Heathrow expansion would be
less beneficial to the nation’s wealth, a £42-127bn benefit to government if
the Gatwick option is chosen as opposed to a £112-211bn benefit if ‘Call me
Dave’ decides on a third runway at Heathrow.
The long term economic benefits are widely unknown. There is
little concrete statistical evidence to suggest that additional capacity or
connectivity would bump up overall GDP. A report commissioned by the International
Air Transport Association in 2009 by suggested, ‘studies suggest that a 10%
increase in connectivity (relative to GDP) will raise the level of productivity
in the economy by a little under 0.5% in the long run, with there being a fair
degree of uncertainty around this average estimate.’ This said, whether the
Airports Commission consider Gatwick, or Heathrow on the cost benefit side of
things is irrelevant when the long term benefits are unclear.
One can assume that the benefit to the Government coffers
would be less if an additional runway were added to somewhere like Manchester
however, the Tory Party would have less to gripe about. With only 5 Tory MP’s
in the Greater Manchester area the ‘not in my back yard opposition’ would be
less vocal to say the least.
Additionally if Manchester had been shortlisted for
consideration by Sir Davies’ Commission, then this may add an element of
authenticity to the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ agenda in a part of the country that perceives
Westminster as a force for Londoners only.
HS2 is due to finish in 2032 and should connect Manchester
Airport to London Euston in 59 minutes. 59 minutes is somewhat longer than 16
minutes, which is the current journey time by rail from Heathrow into London
but 59 minutes isn’t long enough in my view, to impact any prospective economic
benefits of increased aviation capacity that an additional runway at Manchester
could offer.
In one fell swoop, just by looking outward from the London
centric bubble that our modern MP’s find themselves in, ‘Call me Dave’ could
avoid political catastrophe. He may not make his decision for some time but
considering the long term economic benefits are up in the air, and he is stuck
under the ‘not in my back yard squad,’ surely he should look elsewhere other
than London for a way out of this political conundrum. Up north, I dare say
investment in aviation capacity, somewhere like Manchester would be welcomed
and with HS2’s fairly imminent arrival, benefits to London would still be great.
‘Call me Dave’ might even pick up some votes for projecting the illusion that
he is concerned about the northern powerhouse when we all know he doesn’t
really.